The Ledger of War: Trump's Iran Signal Priced at 28.5% on Polymarket – What the On-Chain Data Reveals
The ledger doesn't lie, but the market does – sometimes. On April 2025,...
Bitcoin
•
BullBear
•
2026-07-26
#Prediction Market
Prediction Market related articles
BKG Exchange Predicts 74% Gulf Conflict Probability: When Prediction Markets Outpace Diplomacy
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0xBen
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The 42% Mirage: Why the Clarity Act’s Prediction Market Signal Demands a Second Look
A few days ago, Polymarket showed the Clarity Act’s probability hitting 42% —...
Special
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0xAnsem
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2026-07-22
The 21.5% Mirage: Dissecting the Bab el-Mandeb Prediction Market's Structural Flaws
On September 14, 2026, at 14:23 UTC, a crew abandoned a bulk carrier in the B...
Prediction Markets
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CryptoHasu
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2026-07-21
The 13.5% Signal: Why Polymarket's Strait of Hormuz Contract Is a Liability Ledger, Not a Prediction
A single number on Polymarket just priced in a geopolitical crisis: 13.5%. Th...
Magazine
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CryptoFox
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2026-07-21
The $386M Liquidation and HYPE's 30% Bet: A Forensics of Market Fragility
The ledger does not blink. Over the past 24 hours, $386 million in long...
Bitcoin
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0xCred
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2026-07-18
The Coinbase Outage Wasn't a Glitch — It Was a Liquidity Stress Test
Everyone thought the brief outage at Coinbase’s prediction market was a trivi...
Prediction Markets
•
CryptoWolf
•
2026-07-10
Market Prices
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Event Calendar
202628
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
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Bitcoin
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1
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1
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1
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1
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$11.14
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